Monday's topics at the statistical world conference will include population and labour market development. Juha Alho from the University of Joensuu will give a presentation on population forecasting. He will present a forecast made by exploiting Statistics Finland's data of the population of Finland up to the year 2050. At the same time he will assess the risk of probable forecast errors. Changes in the fertility level were estimated using data from 1751-1996 while data from 1900-1994 are used for estimating changes in mortality. Migration estimation is based on data from 1945 onwards.
According to Alho's study the biggest uncertainties in population forecasting relate to changes in fertility, which makes estimating the sizes of the younger age groups fairly uncertain. Changes in mortality are a further source of uncertainty.
The uncertainty of population forecasts has economic implications, as state aid to municipalities, for example, varies according to the sizes of old and young age groups. Alho's study material was then utilised to analyse the effects of the changing age structure on the economic burden imposed on the taxpayer. According to the analysis the burden on the population of working age will grow 1.3-1.9-fold compared to today. In particular, small municipalities on the west coast of Finland will lose if current benefits are left intact.
180 presentations on Monday
A total of 180 presentations will be made at the conference on Monday, on topics ranging between probability, geographical information systems, surveys for measuring change over time, graphical models, extreme and record value statistics, statistical literacy and education, official statistics, reliability and measurement errors, small area estimates, statistical problems of transition and developing countries, population estimation and forecasting and quality control and statistics in industry.
Tuesday's sessions will address topics like crucial issues for statistics in the next two decades, business and enterprise statistics, sports and tobacco statistics, statistical publishing, managing of response burden, statistics in biology and genetics, the information society, commercial data sources, measurement and valuation of household work and international comparability of statistics.
Further information about the conference programme:
Jussi Melkas, tel. +358 9 1734 3200;
Virpi Viertola, tel. +358 50 568 7444;
Kristiina Niklander, tel. +358 50 373 6510
Short English abstracts at: http://www.stat.fi/isi99/proceedings.html