27 February 2002
Inquiries: Mr Arto Kokkinen +358 9 1734
3355, arto.kokkinen@stat.fi
Director in charge: Mr Markku Suur-Kujala
GDP on level with the previous month in December
According to the trend of the Monthly Indicator of GDP calculated by Statistics Finland, the volume of GDP was on the same level in December as in November. From February to June 2001 output fell compared to the previous month, but in July the fall halted. GDP grew in August, September, October and November.
Volume of GDP in 1990-2001, trend and seasonally adjusted series
The volume of GDP was 39 per cent higher in December 2001 than in March 1993 at the depth of the recession, and 18 per cent higher than in December 1989 at the height of the economic boom before the recession.
The economic time series can be divided into trend cycle, seasonal variation and random variation components. When the seasonal variation component is removed from the original series of GDP, a seasonally adjusted series is obtained, the changes in which still vary greatly from the previous month. When the seasonally adjusted series is also adjusted for the random variation component, the trend cycle component describing more stable changes is left over. Seasonal variation and random variation components are removed with X11ARIMA models.
It should be noted that the series adjusted for seasonal and random variation are revised along with new observations. The last three point figures of the trend cycle series should be taken with care because especially at the turning points new observations can significantly change the figures adjusted for seasonal and random variation.
GDP of the same size compared to the previous year's December as well
In December 2001, GDP fell by only 0.2 per cent from the previous year's December. Output fell in four of the six main industries, i.e. primary production, manufacturing, construction and transport compared to December 2000. The industries of trade and public services and other services grew.
Percentage changes of GDP from the previous year's corresponding month
Output in agriculture and forestry fell by one per cent in December. The considerable reduction of fellings in the previous months slowed down and milk production grew by nearly 2 per cent. However, meat production went down by 5 per cent from December 2000.
Industrial output declined by 3 per cent in December from the year before. Output in the manufacture of electrical products decreased by close on 12 per cent and in the wood and paper industry by 9 per cent. Energy supply increased by 6 per cent.
Output in trade grew by nearly 2 per cent from December 2000. Within trade, sale volumes of both wholesale and retail trade rose by almost 3 per cent, whereas car sales fell by 5 per cent.
Output in transport went down by one per cent because rail transport dropped by almost 15 per cent. Road transport and post and telecommunications increased.
Output in other services and public services rose by nearly 2 per cent. Construction reduced by nearly 3 per cent from December 2000.
The Monthly Indicator of GDP (total output) is based on twelve monthly series on different industries of the economy. The series are summed up by weighting. The purpose of the Monthly Indicator is to anticipate the development of the volume of the quarterly gross domestic product published later.
Source: Monthly Indicator of GDP 2001, December. Statistics Finland