30 May 2002
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Director in charge: Mr Markku Suur-Kujala
The fall of GDP stabilised in March
According to the trend of the Monthly Indicator of GDP calculated by Statistics Finland, the volume of GDP was on the same level in March as in February. Towards the end of 2001 and at the very beginning of 2002 GDP fell.
Volume of GDP in 1990-2002, trend and seasonally adjusted series
The volume of GDP was 37 per cent higher in March 2002 than in March 1993 at the depth of the recession and 16 per cent higher than in December 1989 at the height of the economic boom before the recession.
The economic time series can be divided into trend cycle, seasonal variation and random variation components. When the seasonal variation component is removed from the original series of GDP, a seasonally adjusted series is obtained, the changes in which still vary greatly from the previous month. When the seasonally adjusted series is also adjusted for the random variation component, the trend series describing economic trends the most stably is left over. Seasonal variation and random variation components are removed by X11ARIMA models.
It should be noted that the series adjusted for seasonal and random variation will get revised with new observations. The last three point figures of the trend cycle series should be taken with care because especially at the turning points new observations can change significantly the figures adjusted for seasonal and random variation.
GDP went down by 1.8 per cent from last year's March
In March 2002, GDP fell by 1.8 per cent from the previous year's March. Compared to March 2001, output declined in five of the six main industries, i.e. primary production, manufacturing, construction, trade and transport. In contrast, output in public services and other services increased.
Percentage changes of GDP from the previous year's corresponding month
Output in agriculture and forestry decreased by 7 per cent in March. Fellings contracted by 11 per cent and meat production by 7 per cent. Milk production grew by 2 per cent compared to March last year.
Industrial output as calculated per working day declined by 5 per cent in March from the year before. Calculated per working day, output in the wood and paper industry decreased by 4 per cent, energy supply by 9 per cent and the chemical industry by 11 per cent. The manufacture of electrical products increased by 3 per cent.
Output in trade fell by one per cent from March 2001. Wholesale trade slowed by 3 per cent. However, sale volumes of retail trade improved by 2 per cent. Sales of motor vehicles also grew by one per cent.
Output in transport went down by nearly 2 per cent because rail transport declined by 6 per cent and road transport by 3 per cent. Post and telecommunications increased.
Construction reduced by less than 2 per cent from March 2001. Output in other services and public services rose by nearly 2 per cent.
The Monthly Indicator of GDP (total output) is based on twelve monthly series on different sectors of the economy. The series are summed up by weighting. The purpose of the Monthly Indicator is to anticipate the development of the volume of the quarterly gross domestic product published later.
Source: Monthly Indicator of GDP 2002, March. Statistics Finland