30 July 2002
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Director in charge: Mr Markku Suur-Kujala
GDP grew further in May
According to the trend of the Monthly Indicator of GDP calculated by Statistics Finland, the volume of GDP increased by 0.4 per cent in May compared to April. The volume of GDP produced in one month has last been on a corresponding level in February to March 2001.
Volume of GDP in 1990-2002, trend and seasonally adjusted series
The volume of GDP was 40 per cent higher in May 2002 than in March 1993 at the depth of the recession and 18 per cent higher than in December 1989 at the height of the economic boom preceding the recession.
The economic time series can be divided into trend cycle, seasonal variation and random variation components. When the seasonal variation component is removed from the original series of GDP, a seasonally adjusted series is obtained, the changes in which still vary greatly from the previous month. When the seasonally adjusted series is also adjusted for the random variation component, the trend series that describes economic trends the most stably is left over. Seasonal variation and random variation components are removed by X11ARIMA models.
It should be noted that the series adjusted for seasonal and random variation will get revised with new observations. The last three point figures of the trend cycle series should be taken with care because especially at the turning points new observations can change significantly the figures adjusted for seasonal and random variation.
GDP went up by 0.9 per cent from last year's May
In May 2002, GDP rose by 0.9 per cent compared to the previous year's May. Output grew in three of the six main industries, i.e. trade, transport, and public services and other services. Primary production and manufacturing remained on the same level as in last year's May but construction decreased.
Percentage changes of GDP from the previous year's corresponding month
Sale volumes of trade rose by 4 per cent from May 2001. Sales of motor vehicles still grew briskly in May, by 11 per cent. Retail trade went up by 3 per cent and wholesale trade by 2 per cent.
Transport increased by 1 per cent because road transport picked up by 1 per cent and post and telecommunications by nearly 5 per cent. Rail transport slowed by 5 per cent.
Output in other services and public services rose by good 1 per cent.
Output in agriculture and forestry stayed on the same level as in May 2001. The volumes of both milk and meat production and fellings were equal to those of May last year.
Industrial output as calculated per working day was also on level with last year's May. The manufacture of electrical products went up by 6 per cent. Output in the wood and paper industry rose by 1 per cent and in the chemical industry by 9 per cent. Energy supply declined by 14 per cent.
Construction slowed down by close on 2 per cent from May 2001.
The Monthly Indicator of GDP is based on twelve monthly series on different industries of the economy. The series are summed up by weighting. The purpose of the Monthly Indicator is to anticipate the development of the volume of the quarterly gross domestic product published later.
Source: Monthly Indicator of GDP 2002, May. Statistics Finland