31 July 2002
Inquiries: Mr Pertti Kangassalo+358 9 1734
3598, pertti.kangassalo@stat.fi
Director in charge: Mr Markku Suur-Kujala
One third of consumers anticipate unemployment to worsen
Consumers' confidence in the economy has diminished slightly in the last few months but is still strong. The consumer confidence indicator was 13.3 in July. Views on the development of unemployment deteriorated particularly in July. In contrast, consumers still had strong faith in their own household's saving possibilities. Consumers considered the time to be favourable for purchasing consumer durables for the first time since the introduction of the euro. The data are based on Statistics Finland's Consumer Survey, for which 1,650 persons resident in Finland were interviewed between 1 and 19 July.
Consumer views on the economic and financial conditions in Finland in July 2002
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|
July 2002 balance |
June 2002 balance |
July 2001 balance |
Average 10/1995- |
|||||
|
Consumer confidence indicator |
13.3 |
14.8 |
9.5 |
14.4 |
||||
|
Own economic situation in 12 months' time |
9.9 |
11.8 |
9.0 |
8.3 |
||||
|
Household's saving possibilities in the next 12 months |
41.4 |
40.7 |
34.2 |
26.3 |
||||
|
General economic situation in Finland in 12 months' time |
4.9 |
6.5 |
-11.0 |
9.2 |
||||
|
Unemployment in 12 months' time |
3.2 |
-0.3 |
-5.6 |
-13.9 |
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|
Price trend over the next 12 months. % |
1.7 |
1.6 |
2.7 |
1.9 |
||||
|
Financial situation of household at present |
27.4 |
26.4 |
27.2 |
22.2 |
||||
|
Favourable time to make major purchases at present |
8.9 |
-2.1 |
16.8 |
18.2 |
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|
Favourable time to save at present |
19.2 |
19.3 |
15.5 |
1.7 |
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|
Favourable time to raise a loan at present |
24.4 |
21.3 |
11.7 |
19.3 |
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|
The balance figures are obtained by deducting the weighted proportion of negative answers from that of positive answers. The positive balance figure for unemployment means that unemployment is estimated to go up. The consumer confidence indicator is the average of the balance figures for four questions concerning the next 12 months: own and Finland's economy, household's saving possibilities and number of unemployed (with changed sign). The balance figures and the confidence indicator can range between -100 and 100. |
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In July 28 per cent of consumers believed that Finland's economic situation would improve in the next 12 months, while 18 per cent thought the country's economy would deteriorate. The corresponding proportions were 32 and 19 per cent in June. In July almost as many as before, i.e. 26 per cent of consumers trusted their own economy would improve. Only 9 per cent of respondents feared their own economy would worsen.
In July consumers' estimates on unemployment were pessimistic for the first time since March. Twenty-seven per cent of respondents believed that unemployment would fall in the next 12 months but more than that, i.e. 32 per cent estimated unemployment to worsen. In July one tenth of employed persons reckoned that they were likely to become personally unemployed in the next 12 months. Consumers predicted that the rate of inflation would be 1.7 per cent in July 2003.
In July 37 per cent of consumers considered the time favourable for buying consumer durables. The corresponding proportion was 32 per cent one month earlier. Consumers had plenty of consumption plans. Nine per cent of households intended to buy a car in the next six months and 7 per cent were thinking of buying a dwelling over the next 12 months.
In July 69 per cent of consumers thought the time was favourable for raising a loan and 14 per cent of households were planning to do so in the next 12 months. In July 66 per cent of consumers considered saving worthwhile and 74 per cent of households believed they would be able to lay aside money in the next 12 months.
Consumer confidence indicator 10/1995-7/2002
Consumers' expectations concerning their own and
Finland's economy
in 12 months' time 10/1995-7/2002
Consumer confidence indicator in EU Member States, June
2002
Deviation of indicator from average 10/1995-*
http://europa.eu.int/comm/economy_finance/indicators/businessandconsumersurveys_en.htm
Source: Consumer Survey 2002, July. Statistics Finland